isempProject_LifeCycle_lg

Project Contacts
Eric Buhle (Lemhi, ID)
Pete McHugh (Middle Fork John Day, OR)
Shubha Pandit (Entiat, WA)

Current Status
Operational

Funding
ISEMP

Life cycle models (LCMs) provide a useful framework for leveraging the fish population and habitat monitoring data collected by CHaMP and ISEMP, as well as other BPA-funded RM&E projects. It is a flexible population model framework capable of incorporating life-stage specific demographics, movement dynamics, fish-habitat relationships, and various restoration scenarios.  The ISEMP life cycle model is an extension of the life stage specific Beverton-Holt model (Moussalli and Hilborn 1986) modified to explicitly link survival to habitat attributes (Sharma et al. 2005).  We are currently building chinook LCMs in the Lemhi and Entiat and a steelhead model in the Middle Fork John Day.

ISEMP is connecting habitat capacity (quality and quantity) directly with  the fish response through ecohydraulic models such as the Net Rate of Energy Intake (NREI) and Quantile Regression Forests (QRF) approaches.

In Progress

2013:  Project initiated.

Findings and Uses

The ISEMP LCM provides a useful framework for integrating these types of fine-scale data with a watershed-scale population model to support strategic restoration planning.  ISEMP is connecting habitat capacity (quality and quantity) directly with  the fish response through ecohydraulic models such as the Net Rate of Energy Intake (NREI) and Quantile Regression Forests (QRF) approaches.

Density-dependent life-history transitions from spawners to parr and parr to smolts. The transition functions (black lines, with gray envelopes showing uncertainty) are estimated from field data collected in the Lemhi Basin (filled circles with error bars) using a statistical framework that ensures internal consistency through the life cycle and accurately propagates uncertainty from inputs to outputs. The parameters of these curves are stage-specific productivities and capacities, which serve as inputs to the full LCM.

Density-dependent life-history transitions from spawners to parr and parr to smolts. The transition functions (black lines, with gray envelopes showing uncertainty) are estimated from field data collected in the Lemhi Basin (filled circles with error bars) using a statistical framework that ensures internal consistency through the life cycle and accurately propagates uncertainty from inputs to outputs. The parameters of these curves are stage-specific productivities and capacities, which serve as inputs to the full LCM.

Output from the spring Chinook life-cycle model. The simulation summaries show the average spawner abundance for 90 years of the simulation. Darker colors represent frequently predicted abundances, while light colors represent more extreme predictions.

Output from the spring Chinook life-cycle model. The simulation summaries show the average spawner abundance for 90 years of the simulation. Darker colors represent frequently predicted abundances, while light colors represent more extreme predictions.

Fig3_MFJD_LCM

Expected steelhead spawner abundance under current conditions and response to three restoration scenarios. Simulation summaries show the average spawner abundance for the last 10 years of the simulation (horizontal line within boxes), range of frequently observed average abundances (region within boxes), and approximate 95% confidence interval for spawner abundance. Individual scenario outputs for current conditions (blue) and the maximum potential temperature reduction (red) depict predicted spawner abundance for each year of the simulation. Darker colors represent frequently predicted abundances, while light colors represent more extreme predictions.

Products